Lead Analysis
South Korea's Kospi Roars Into a Bull Market on a Memory Chip Supply Crunch
South Korea's Kospi index closed 4% higher Thursday, extending its rebound to 22% above its July 30 closing low and meeting the conventional definition of a technical bull market, per Business Insider. The index had plunged roughly 40% from its June 22 peak to that trough, with index heavyweights Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix falling a combined 48% and driving 71% of the Kospi's losses along the way, according to Macquarie Capital's analysis. Both stocks powered Thursday's advance, with Samsung closing up 5% and SK Hynix up 6% in Seoul trading, while SK Hynix's Nasdaq-listed shares (SKHY) rose 9.01% to $154.41 Wednesday. Macquarie has set a year-end Kospi target of 8,000, implying roughly 17% further upside from Thursday's close of 6,813.34.
"We are facing the worst memory crunch in history and see no signs of supply constraints easing within the next three years." — Macquarie Capital, Equity Research, via Business Insider
Macquarie's note argues July's rout reflected forced deleveraging and stretched positioning rather than any break in AI-driven memory demand, pointing to stabilizing foreign selling and reasonable margin-financing levels as evidence "the volatility is over." Not every strategist is as convinced the rally has legs: Fibonacci Asset Management Global's Jung In Yun cautioned that "after such a steep rebound, some consolidation would be healthy," a reminder that foreign investors have still pulled more than $100 billion out of Korean equities this year even as they now chase the same memory story from abroad. Wednesday's softer-than-expected U.S. inflation print added a further tailwind, easing worries about aggressive Fed tightening just as the rally gathered pace.
Markets
Korea's Kospi Enters a Bull Market as Memory Names Lead the Chip Complex Higher
★ highlighted = today's news-driven movers.
Companies & Financials
Intel's Foundry Bet Wins a Wall Street Believer While Marvell Resets After a 35% Slide
- Bank of America backed Intel's foundry strategy even as its now-closed $20 billion stock offering dilutes existing shareholders, per Invezz, with INTC shares rising 3.32% to $100.95 Wednesday after the 210.5 million-share sale priced at $95 closed. Why it matters: BofA's endorsement signals confidence that Intel Foundry can win external customers even as the U.S. government, which holds a 9.9% stake, declined to participate in the raise, leaving existing holders to absorb the dilution alone.
- Marvell shares have fallen roughly 35% from their June peak near $329 to about $217, per Invezz, even as the Nvidia-backed custom-silicon designer heads into an Aug. 27 earnings report on fiscal 2026 revenue of $8.2 billion. Why it matters: Marvell's reset shows investors distinguishing between AI-infrastructure names with proven hyperscaler contracts and those, like Marvell's custom ASIC business, where the growth story still depends on renewing a concentrated handful of customer deals.
Memory Desk
China's YMTC Overtakes Micron in NAND as Temasek Eyes a First Direct Stake in Korea
- China's Yangtze Memory Technologies has broken into the global top three NAND suppliers, overtaking Kioxia and moving ahead of Micron in shipment share, per Invezz. Why it matters: a Chinese NAND supplier climbing the shipment rankings despite U.S. export controls complicates the pricing-power narrative behind this year's memory rally, particularly for Micron and Kioxia's legacy NAND businesses rather than their higher-margin HBM lines.
- Samsung Electronics jumped 6.68% and SK Hynix's U.S.-listed shares rose 9.01% to $154.41 on Wednesday after South Korean media reported that Singapore's Temasek plans its first-ever direct equity stake in the two memory makers, having previously invested in Korea only through private funds. Why it matters: a direct stake from a sovereign investor of Temasek's scale would be a fresh vote of confidence in HBM and NAND pricing power just as Wall Street debates whether the memory cycle has peaked.
Supply Chain, Equipment & Fabs
Foxconn Earns More From AI Servers Than iPhones for the First Time as UBS Favors Equipment
- Foxconn's cloud-and-networking segment, mostly AI servers, generated 51% of second-quarter revenue, the first time it has topped the company's consumer-electronics business including iPhone assembly, per Business Standard, as net profit rose 35% year-over-year to NT$59.97 billion ($1.86 billion). Why it matters: Foxconn's order book is one of the clearest real-time reads on physical AI server demand, and its crossover moment corroborates the capex numbers TSMC, Nvidia and the equipment makers have been reporting from the supply side.
- UBS Global Wealth Management's Suresh Tantia said he prefers semiconductor equipment and foundry stocks over Korean memory names, per CNBC, citing limited valuation upside for Samsung and SK Hynix given intensifying competition from Chinese memory makers. Why it matters: a major private bank steering clients away from this year's best-performing memory names and toward equipment suppliers like Applied Materials and ASML signals a rotation debate that could shape capital flows into next month.
Policy & Geopolitics
Seoul Bets on Suppliers as SK Hynix Splits Between Beijing and Western Capital
- South Korea's government unveiled a ₩5 trillion (about $3.5 billion) fund this week targeting chip materials, equipment and fabless suppliers, explicitly excluding Samsung and SK Hynix themselves, per TechTimes, alongside a Mega Special Zone Act meant to speed permitting for new chip clusters. Why it matters: directing state capital at the supply chain layer rather than the memory giants themselves is meant to build a durable domestic ecosystem underneath the two companies now powering the Kospi's rebound into a bull market — see Lead Analysis.
- SK Hynix must deliver a binding update to the Korea Exchange by September 10 on its exploration of a stake sale in its Chongqing, China packaging plant, per the South China Morning Post, even as the same company just drew reported interest from Singapore's Temasek for a direct equity stake — see Memory Desk. Why it matters: SK Hynix is simultaneously retreating from Chinese manufacturing exposure and courting Western sovereign capital, a split strategy that shows how deeply U.S.-China tensions are reshaping not just where memory chips are made but who is allowed to own the companies that make them.
Analyst Corner
Baillie Gifford and UBS Split Over How Far the Memory Supply Story Can Run
- Baillie Gifford (published August 13): emerging-markets equities specialist Qian Zhang told Blockonomi that memory demand "has exploded" on AI agents and physical AI even though the industry entered the cycle with limited supply capacity, framing the current shortage as structural rather than a short-term spike.
- UBS Global Wealth Management (published August 11): strategist Suresh Tantia told CNBC he prefers semiconductor equipment and foundry stocks over Korean memory names, arguing Samsung and SK Hynix already reflect limited further upside given intensifying competition from Chinese memory makers.
Calendar / Week Ahead
Applied Materials Reports Tonight as Analog Devices' Turn Comes Next Week
- Thursday, Aug. 13 — Applied Materials reports fiscal third-quarter results after the closing bell, with analysts expecting roughly $8.99 billion in revenue, up about 23% year-over-year, and adjusted EPS near $3.36, per Investopedia.
- Wednesday, Aug. 19 — Analog Devices reports fiscal third-quarter results, with CEO Vincent Roche and CFO Richard Puccio hosting the call to discuss results and guidance for the industrial- and automotive-exposed analog chipmaker, per Analog Devices.
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