Lead Analysis
Micron Guides to $61.5 Billion as Its CEO Sees No Line of Sight to Supply Balance
Micron reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $54.23 billion against a $50.972 billion consensus and non-GAAP EPS of $33.42 against $31.35, with an 87.0% gross margin, per 24/7 Wall St. and Micron. First-quarter guidance is revenue of $61.5 billion, plus or minus $1.5 billion, versus a $57 billion consensus, and EPS of $38.15 against $35.14, per 24/7 Wall St. Shares closed Wednesday at $1,065.11, up 0.03%, per StockAnalysis, and were flat after hours.
"We do not have line of sight to when supply and demand will return to balance." — Sanjay Mehrotra, Chief Executive Officer, Micron Technology, via 24/7 Wall St.
Mehrotra’s line supports pricing, yet the tape barely moved because the surprise is shrinking: the guide beats consensus by roughly 8%, smaller than the earlier surprises that fueled the rally, per Benzinga. The first-quarter gross margin guide of about 86.25% sits below the fourth quarter’s 87.0% but is described as the low point for fiscal 2027, per MarketBeat. Memory suppliers with committed volume gain; buyers absorbing higher prices carry the cost. At 6.04 times forward earnings, per StockAnalysis, the market is discounting the durability of the cycle rather than the quarter.
Markets
Daily Top-10 Movers
Prices are Wednesday, September 30, 2026 closes at 4:00 PM EDT. Ranked by absolute price change among semiconductor stocks with market cap ≥$5B.
★ highlighted = today's news-driven movers.
Companies & Financials
Skyworks Clears Its Qorvo Deal for an October 5 Close as Foundry 2.0 Revenue Hits $96.6 Billion
- Skyworks said Wednesday it has received all necessary regulatory clearances for its combination with Qorvo, with closing expected on or about October 5 subject to customary conditions and with Qorvo note exchange offers expiring October 2, per Skyworks; the cash-and-stock deal was announced October 28, 2025 and is valued at about $22 billion, per GuruFocus. Skyworks closed Wednesday down 2.91% at $85.48 and Qorvo down 1.94% at $114.48, per StockAnalysis for Skyworks and Qorvo. Why it matters: the last regulatory gate is cleared, so the remaining variables are execution and the synergy target of $500 million cited by StockAnalysis; both shares fell on the day, so the market did not treat the clearance as new information.
- The "Foundry 2.0" market, which spans foundries, non-memory chipmakers, assembly and test companies and photomask makers, reached a record $96.6 billion in the second quarter of 2026, up 25% from a year earlier, with TSMC at $40.2 billion in revenue, up 34%, and a 42% share, per Edaily, citing Counterpoint Research. The outsourced assembly and test market reached $12.6 billion, up 22%, with ASE up 24% and Amkor up 26%, while SMIC grew 36%. Why it matters: growth outside TSMC — in packaging and China-based foundry capacity — shows the cycle is lifting the back end and mature nodes too, and Counterpoint analyst William Lee said Samsung and Intel foundry are "also benefiting as customers seek additional supply sources."
Memory Desk
Micron Plans $25 Billion of Capex in Six Months as Korea's Chip Exports Top $60 Billion
- Micron expects about $25 billion of capital spending in the first half of fiscal 2027, including roughly $11.5 billion in the first quarter, and says more than 75% of its 2027 output is already committed, with the vast majority of calendar-2027 HBM bit supply under agreement, per MarketBeat’s call summary; fiscal 2026 capital spending was $27.37 billion, per Micron. Why it matters: on ChipSentinel’s arithmetic, six months of planned spend equals about 91% of all of fiscal 2026, which supports future bit supply but also raises the depreciation and supply-response questions the cycle will have to answer in 2028.
- South Korea’s September exports hit a record $120.9 billion, up 83.5%, with semiconductor shipments topping $60.3 billion for the first time, up 263%, per Korea JoongAng Daily, ahead of the 62.0% growth in the Reuters poll; the trade ministry cited "increased shipments and higher product prices amid rising demand for memory chips." Samsung Electronics rose 1.86% to 273,500 won and SK hynix 2.08% to 1.813 million won in Seoul, per Seoul Economic Daily. Why it matters: the data confirm that price, not just volume, is driving memory revenue, which is the variable behind both Samsung’s and SK hynix’s earnings estimates.
Supply Chain, Equipment & Fabs
Infineon Opens a $1.44 Billion Thai Backend Hub as GlobalFoundries Singapore Runs Above 90%
- Infineon opened a backend manufacturing site in Samut Prakan, Thailand, on October 1 as part of a 48 billion baht (US$1.44 billion) program covering power-module manufacturing, testing and R&D for electric vehicles, energy systems and data centers, per BusinessToday; the site employs about 350 people, is expected to reach roughly 1,000, and can grow to five modules, per Infineon’s release. Why it matters: Infineon is adding assembly capacity for power semiconductors ahead of demand rather than waiting for auto volumes, and wafer fabrication is not expected in Thailand within three years, so the near-term effect is on packaging cost and geographic diversification, not on front-end supply.
- GlobalFoundries’ Singapore fabs are running above 90% utilization, and equipment lead times for specialized photonics tooling stretch to months, with no revised timeline disclosed for additional silicon photonics capacity, per BriefAsia. Why it matters: a foundry with limited free capacity and tool-delivery delays cannot add photonics output quickly, which is supportive for pricing and for equipment suppliers, and a constraint on how fast GlobalFoundries can take share in AI interconnect.
Policy & Geopolitics
Core PCE Undershoots at 3.0% as Huawei Claims Its Ascend Chips Have Passed Nvidia in China
- Core PCE inflation came in at 3.0% year over year in August against 3.3% expected, with a 0.2% monthly gain against 0.3%, and headline PCE at 3.4%, per Yahoo Finance, which put the probability of an October rate hike at about 35%, down from about 50% on Tuesday; Governor Michael Barr said he does "not yet see a clear trend toward a timely return to 2%." The report also noted that methodology revisions reduced reported inflation by about 0.3%. Why it matters: lower hike odds ease discount-rate pressure on long-duration chip earnings, but the 10-year yield near 5.26%, per Yahoo Finance, remains a multidecade high and the September jobs report on October 2 can reverse the move.
- Huawei rotating chairman Eric Xu said Ascend processors have "surpassed Nvidia" in Chinese market penetration, while acknowledging that precise data is hard to collect, per The Register, which noted that Nvidia’s H200 shipments to China currently represent less than 1% of its data-center revenue and that DeepSeek released compatibility tools this week to widen Ascend access. Why it matters: the claim is unverified, but with China already under 1% of Nvidia’s data-center revenue, the exposure to a domestic-substitution push is limited, while the risk shifts to the optionality investors may have assigned to a reopened market.
Analyst Corner
SemiAnalysis Questions Cerebras on OpenAI's Ultrafast Tier as BofA Sees a $2.2 Trillion Market
- SemiAnalysis said OpenAI’s GPT-6.1 Sol Ultrafast tier is not running on Cerebras but instead at a low batch size on Nvidia GPUs, per SemiAnalysis (published September 30), and asked what that says about Cerebras’s role in future serving. Benzinga reported that neither company has publicly confirmed the hardware; Cerebras closed Wednesday at $177.65, below its $185 IPO price, with about 58 million more lockup shares set for release on October 14 and October 28.
- Bank of America’s Vivek Arya projects the AI data-center systems market at $2.2 trillion by 2030, roughly 40% annual growth, with server CPUs growing from about $61 billion in 2026 to $210 billion and wafer-fab equipment spending from $156 billion to $360 billion, per Benzinga (published September 30). His top five picks are Nvidia, Intel, Micron, Marvell and Lam Research, and the bank also favors AMD, Applied Materials, Analog Devices and ON Semiconductor; per Investing.com, the previous market forecast was $1.8 trillion.
Calendar / Week Ahead
Friday's Jobs Report and Marvell's October 6 Investor Day Frame the Week
- Friday, October 2 — U.S. September employment report, which 24/7 Wall St. says will help determine whether October rate-hike odds recover above 50% before the October 28 Fed meeting.
- Tuesday, October 6 — Marvell Technology investor day, where management is expected to detail AI data-center networking opportunities, per The Motley Fool.
|